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Power Rankings: How you stack up in your division

Seven weeks are in the books, and a handful of division races still look (relatively) tight. But thanks to ESPN’s Football Power Index, we have some clarity.

Here’s a rundown of the Week 8 Power Rankings, as voted on by our power panel — a group of more than 80 writers, editors and TV personalities — with a breakdown of every team’s chance to win its division, according to FPI.

ESPN Stats & Information’s John McTigue contributed the following information.

Methodology: These rankings are based on which teams voters think would win head-to-head matchups. Higher-ranked teams would be favored against lower-ranked teams. Coming off a win doesn’t guarantee a jump, and a loss doesn’t guarantee a fall.

Previous rankings: Week 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | Preseason

2017 record: 5-2
Week 7 ranking: No. 3

84.0 percent. The AFC East might look closer than ever in the standings, but FPI still indicates the Patriots are the clear favorites to win the division. It’ll take some big efforts from the Bills, Dolphins or Jets to top the team that has won 14 of the past 16 division titles.

2017 record: 6-1
Week 7 ranking: No. 2

86.4 percent. Carson Wentz leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (17) and already has surpassed his TD total from last season (16). He also has led the Eagles to their best start since 2004 and has given them the best chance of winning the NFC East.

2017 record: 5-2
Week 7 ranking: No. 1

88.7 percent. FPI might be singing a different tune if the Chiefs lose a third straight game in Week 8 to the Broncos, but for now, the Chiefs are an overwhelming favorite to win the AFC West. Despite the recent losses, they still have the second-most points per game and third-best point differential.

2017 record: 5-2
Week 7 ranking: No. 4

94.8 percent. The Steelers already are 3-0 in division play and the only team with a winning record in the AFC North. FPI gives them nearly a 95 percent chance of winning back-to-back division titles for the first time since 2007-08.

2017 record: 3-3
Week 7 ranking: No. 12

12.5 percent. The Eagles are making it difficult for everyone else in the NFC East right now, but Dallas still has two games in hand against them and five total division games left. The Cowboys’ 12.5 percent chance of winning the division might seem low, but it could look much different in a few weeks.

2017 record: 4-2
Week 7 ranking: No. 5

77.8 percent. A win over the Rams in Week 5 has Seattle in the driver’s seat for the NFC West, and the two teams won’t meet again until Week 15. The Seahawks continue to win with defense, allowing a league-best 15.7 points per game this season.

2017 record: 5-2
Week 7 ranking: No. 9

21.8 percent. How do the Rams, who currently lead the NFC West and have the best point differential (plus-74) in the NFL, have a less than 22 percent chance of winning the division? In Los Angeles, it’s all about who you know … er, who you’ve beaten, and the Rams didn’t beat the Seahawks. That puts L.A. in the back seat until it can beat Seattle or create more separation.

2017 record: 5-2
Week 7 ranking: No. 13

72.0 percent. Just two weeks ago, Minnesota’s chances of winning the division were down to 21 percent. With Aaron Rodgers out, the Vikings are the favorite to win the NFC North now. Five of their next six games are on the road, though, so they’ll need to improve on their 11-15 away record under coach Mike Zimmer to keep those chances high.

2017 record: 3-3
Week 7 ranking: No. 11

16.6 percent. The Texans have scored at least 33 points in four straight games, but they are just 2-2 in those contests. Rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson has brought excitement to the offense, but the defensive struggles are bringing down Houston’s chances at a division title.

2017 record: 3-4
Week 7 ranking: No. 20

2.5 percent. Thursday’s win over the Chiefs might have saved the Raiders’ season, but there’s still a lot of work left to do. They won’t play in Oakland again until after Thanksgiving, and they currently have the third-toughest remaining strength of schedule. Good luck with that.

2017 record: 3-3
Week 7 ranking: No. 10

1.0 percent. The Redskins have been swept by the division-leading Eagles, which puts their chances at winning the NFC East at slim to none. Their chances aren’t helped by the fact that their next four games are against the Cowboys, Seahawks, Vikings and Saints, who have a combined .640 winning percentage this season.

2017 record: 3-3
Week 7 ranking: No. 7

17.2 percent. The Falcons had a 72 percent chance to win the NFC South after their 3-0 start, but those odds have fallen drastically after losing three straight. Atlanta’s division chances could hinge on the stretch run. The Falcons play five of their last six games against division foes.

2017 record: 4-3
Week 7 ranking: No. 19

59.3 percent. The Jaguars haven’t won a division title since 1999, but FPI currently has them down as the favorites in the AFC South. The defense has been the driving force behind Jacksonville’s resurgence, leading the league in sacks (33), takeaways (16) and interceptions (10).

2017 record: 4-2
Week 7 ranking: No. 14

63.7 percent. After Week 2, the Saints were 0-2 and the only winless team in the NFC South. Since then, their chances of winning the division have jumped from 1.3 percent to 63.7 percent. An improved defense has helped New Orleans greatly. The Saints have allowed the second-fewest points per drive over their four-game win streak, trailing only the Jaguars.

2017 record: 4-2
Week 7 ranking: No. 18

12.2 percent. Their division chances might not be high, but the Bills have the seventh-best chances of making the playoffs in the AFC (39.0 percent). They still have four games against the Patriots and Dolphins from Weeks 13 to 17, so if they can keep winning in the meantime, who knows what will happen down the stretch?

2017 record: 3-3
Week 7 ranking: No. 15

14.2 percent. The Lions have lost three of their past four games and have struggled to keep Matthew Stafford upright, as he has taken 23 sacks, second most in the NFL. Detroit’s chances of winning the division are low, but with five division matchups remaining and Aaron Rodgers out, they could start to climb.

2017 record: 3-3
Week 7 ranking: No. 8

5.7 percent. The Broncos have lost three of their past four games, with Trevor Siemian throwing two touchdowns (and five interceptions) over that stretch. The offense hasn’t mustered more than 16 points in the past four contests, and Denver’s chances of winning the division have dropped below 6 percent as a result.

2017 record: 3-4
Week 7 ranking: No. 24

3.2 percent. After the Chargers dropped to 0-4, their chances to win the AFC West sat at 0.1 percent, so the increase to even just 3.2 percent is noteworthy. The problem is, the Chargers travel to New England, Jacksonville and Dallas for three of their next four games. So they could be back down to 0.1 percent in the near future.

2017 record: 4-3
Week 7 ranking: No. 6

12.6 percent. Scheduling oddities could be behind Carolina’s low division chances right now. There has been only one division matchup played in the NFC South so far this season and the Panthers lost it, putting them behind the eight ball, so to speak. Carolina looks to rebound against the Bucs and Falcons over the next two weeks.

2017 record: 4-2
Week 7 ranking: No. 26

3.8 percent. The Patriots are the main reason that the Dolphins have only a 3.8 percent chance to win the division, but their offensive struggles are why they have only a 19 percent chance of making the playoffs. Miami’s next three games are in prime time, so all eyes will be on this team in the coming weeks.

2017 record: 4-3
Week 7 ranking: No. 21

24.1 percent. The Titans are one of three teams with a winning record and a negative point differential this season. They’ve beaten the Jaguars, which boosts their division chances, but they’ll need to be more consistent coming out of their Week 8 bye.

2017 record: 4-3
Week 7 ranking: No. 16

13.2 percent. Entering Week 6, the Packers were nearly a 65 percent favorite to win the NFC North, according to FPI. Just two weeks later those chances have dipped to 13.2 percent. That’s how big of an impact Aaron Rodgers’ injury has made.

2017 record: 2-4
Week 7 ranking: No. 25

6.6 percent. The bad news is that Tampa Bay has lost three in a row, dropping it to last in the NFC South. The good news is that the Bucs have yet to play a division game, so that 6.6 percent chance of winning the division could change quickly with a few division wins. Up next: Carolina.

2017 record: 3-4
Week 7 ranking: No. 28

0.6 percent. Mitchell Trubisky has completed a whopping 12 passes over the Bears’ two-game win streak. Chicago’s offense ranks worst in FPI. So while the team’s recent successes might be nice, FPI still gives them only a less than 1 percent chance of winning the North.

2017 record: 3-4
Week 7 ranking: No. 22

4.2 percent. At one point, Baltimore’s chances to win the AFC North were close to 43 percent, according to FPI, but since losing four of five games, those chances have dipped to 4.2 percent. Joe Flacco has thrown six interceptions to two touchdowns over that five-game stretch.

2017 record: 2-4
Week 7 ranking: No. 23

1.0 percent. The Bengals showed some life with back-to-back wins in Weeks 4 and 5, but a 15-point loss to the Steelers has Cincinnati down to 2-4 overall and 1-2 in division. FPI doesn’t like its odds for the division title (1.0 percent) or playoffs (8.5 percent).

2017 record: 3-4
Week 6 ranking: No. 27

<0.1 percent. Even after the Jets won three straight games, their chances to win the division were only 0.3 percent, according to FPI. Blowing a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead with minus-4 yards of offense against the Dolphins might’ve well ended any playoff hopes for the Jets.

2017 record: 3-4
Week 7 ranking: No. 17

0.4 percent. Carson Palmer is out. David Johnson is out. (Someone please hide Larry Fitzgerald.) Arizona was showing signs of life, but with Drew Stanton now helming the offense and Arizona already several games behind, the Cardinals’ chances to win the division are down to a minuscule 0.4 percent.

2017 record: 1-6
Week 7 ranking: No. 30

0.1 percent. The Giants have virtually no shot at winning the division, but FPI doesn’t think the Giants are this bad. Despite owning one of the worst records in the NFL, FPI thinks the Giants have a 41.3 percent chance at a top-five draft pick.

2017 record: 2-5
Week 7 ranking: No. 29

0.0 percent. Fun fact: The Colts’ two wins this season came against the winless 49ers and winless Browns. How bad do the Colts miss Andrew Luck? They actually have the highest chances of losing out (13.3 percent).

2017 record: 0-7
Week 7 ranking: No. 31

0.0 percent. The saying goes: On any given Sunday, you can win or lose. The 49ers have lost 19 straight games played on Sunday. If they played more on Monday, Thursday or Saturday, they might have a chance at the division. Instead, their chances at the division are literally zero percent.

2017 record: 0-7
Week 7 ranking: No. 32

0.0 percent. The Browns are just the fourth franchise in the Super Bowl era to start 0-7 in back-to-back seasons. Their chances to win the division are nonexistent, but their chances to “earn” the top pick in next year’s draft are through the roof. The Browns are a 58.4 percent favorite to pick first, according to FPI.

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